Colorado’s Third Congressional District On George Will’s Radar Screen
In his editorial published in The Washington Post, George Will enumerated some of the more interesting stories to watch for in Tuesday’s Democratic beating. One of those stories is the probable defeat of Colorado’s John Salazar, the incumbent Democrat from the Western slope:
Rep. John Salazar (D-Colo.), whose younger brother was a Colorado senator before becoming interior secretary, won in 2008 by 22 points. In Congress, Salazar has opposed cap-and-trade and TARP and supports a one-year extension of all the Bush tax cuts. The National Rifle Association has endorsed him. Nevertheless, he may lose.
Given his fairly conservative voting record, if Salazar does in fact lose on Tuesday, I think it will signify the anti-incumbent nature of the current political climate rather than the anti-liberal/anti-Obama narrative conservatives are trying to develop. Voters, in other words, aren’t just angry at President Obama and the Democrats. They are angry at everyone in Washington.
John Salazar Trails Republican Opponent by Four Points, According to The Hill
Earlier this summer, John Salazar, the three-term Democratic Congressman from Colorado’s third Congressional district, appeared safe from the Republican tsunami awaiting Democrats in November.
Now, however, a new poll conducted by The Hill has Salazar trailing his Republican opponent, Scott Tipton, by four points. It observed that:
Independent voters are breaking for Tipton by 15 points. He’s also winning among male, female, middle-aged and older voters.
Salazar is winning among younger voters, but the three-term lawmaker gets mixed reviews from his constituents. When asked about him, 46 percent gave Salazar a favorable rating while 48 percent gave him an unfavorable one.
A big issue in this district is earmarks. Tipton has criticized Salazar for bringing home millions in federal dollars and has taken a no-earmark pledge.
Voters tend to agree with him. When asked if they’d rather have a member of Congress who’d fight to cut spending or one who will fight to bring benefits to the district, 55 percent said they’d prefer a lawmaker who cut spending while 36 percent wanted one who would bring back the money.
This rapid change in fortunes for Salazar, who is the younger brother of former Senator and current Interior Secretary, Ken Salazar, does not bode well for Democrats nationally. It means that Republican gains on Nov. 2nd could amount to a blowout of historic proportions.
DCCC Pulls Betsy Markey’s Ad Funding, Salazar and Perlmutter Still Get Ad Buys
Reid Wilson at the National Journal’s Hotline On Call is reporting that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has pulled its independent expenditure advertisements for Betsy Markey in Colorado’s CD-4. National Democrats, Wilson wrote, “are using their checkbooks as acknowledgement that nearly a dozen members are beyond saving.”
With just two weeks to go before election day, he goes on to say:
The DCCC did not spend money on behalf of Reps. Mary Jo Kilroy (D-Ohio), Debbie Halvorson (D-Ill.), Betsy Markey (D-Colo.), Alan Grayson (D-Fla.), Suzanne Kosmas (D-Fla.), Patrick Murphy (D-Pa.) and Steve Kagen (D-Wis.), the filings show. Republicans believe those seven seats are all but guaranteed to fall their way.
Even though the DCCC has pulled Congresswoman Markey’s ad buys for the week, it still invested $236,000 for John Salazar in CD-3 and $147,000 for Ed Perlmutter in CD-7—a sign that Democratic leaders in Washington still believe both seats can still be saved from the national Republican wave.
Libertarianism, Democrats, and the West
The libertarian strain that permeates throughout Colorado--and the interior West more broadly--has always made the region difficult to place within the traditional liberal-conservative ideological divide. At various times and depending on the issue, both Democrats and Republicans have been able to court the libertarian vote. But, libertarians are a finicky bunch and, they have always been uneasy about declaring a strict allegiance to either party. Despite a decades long partnership with the GOP, the Republican Party's tilt toward the socially conservative South, along with President Bush's 'big-government conservatism' made this sparsely populated region fertile ground for the Democrats. Yet, months of bailouts, frustration with Obama's management of the economy and with his bungled health care campaign, not to mention Congress's passage of cap and trade, has turned the West's marriage of convenience with the Democrats into a relationship destined for divorce.
A recently published article in the Economist reminds us that, despite the Democrats recent electoral success, the West is not a preserve of electoral blue; rather, it's a vast ocean of purple. I published an article in the Loveland Reporter Herald in 2005, a few months after the 2004 election, noting the Democratic trend in the Rocky Mountain West. In an election year where Republicans routed the Democrats nationally and pundits were talking about the possibility of a permanent Republican majority, Montana, Arizona and New Mexico all had Democratic Governors; and Colorado voters voted the Republican majority in both houses of state legislature out of office, elected Democrat Ken Salazar to the U.S. Senate and his brother Tom Salazar to Congress.
